A new report by the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED) has revealed a 262 per cent surge in militant-related fatalities across the Nigeria–Benin–Niger tri-border region in 2025, raising fresh concerns over security coordination and border governance in West Africa.
The report attributes the spike in violence to increased activities by al-Qaeda-linked Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) and the Islamic State Sahel Province (ISSP).
According to ACLED, parts of Benin and Niger, alongside Nigeria’s Sokoto, Kebbi, Niger and Kwara states, recorded an 86 per cent rise in violent incidents compared to 2024.
ACLED’s Senior Analyst for West Africa, Héni Nsaibia, said extremist groups have expanded their operational footprint, adopting more visible strategies and publicly claiming attacks in areas where their presence had previously been less overt.
The report noted that JNIM claimed several attacks along the Benin–Nigeria frontier, marking what it described as some of the group’s first openly acknowledged operations inside Nigeria. Similarly, ISSP reportedly claimed responsibility for attacks along the Niger–Nigeria border.
From a policy perspective, ACLED linked the escalation to weak governance structures, porous borders and declining regional cooperation following the withdrawal of some Sahelian states from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS).
The report warned that limited state presence and strained bilateral ties have reduced cross-border intelligence sharing and joint security operations.
The assessment also highlighted recent counter-terrorism collaboration between Nigeria and the United States, including precision strikes on suspected Islamic State enclaves in Sokoto State.
ACLED suggested that expanding militant activity towards coastal West Africa could further test regional security frameworks and require renewed multilateral engagement.
The findings underscore the need for strengthened border management, enhanced regional security cooperation and sustained investment in local governance to stem the growing insurgent threat in the sub-region.
